Catch 23, Putin’s implied threat of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. This is a ploy to protect his unlawful, unethical, unconscionable assault on free democracy, from retaliation. He presumably thinks that the threat of an unthinkable catastrophe: a nuclear exchange, will deter retribution.
It is not just Ukraine that is being destroyed. The whole world is suffering: Inflation, food and energy shortages that will be catastrophic next winter. There will be hunger and starvation, leading to possible revolutions elsewhere. He affects the whole world by attacking Ukraine, like a vandal who attacks your entire family by disabling your car so you can’t get to work. That in turn affects your neighbors who depend on you to do your job.
The EU the G7 and NATO need to take a stronger stand. EU and the G7 can promise to make the economic sanctions permanent if he does not end his attack on Ukraine and withdraw by a certain date. Most of Europe has a history of fighting among themselves, but not taking on an outside adversary no matter what. Europe let Rome dominate the entire continent for almost 1,000 years, then let the Vatican, indirectly for hundreds more. European governments Kowtowed to the Barbary pirates and paid tribute, bribes, rather than retaliate. The pirates were robbing and capturing European citizens for slaves. It took newborn USA to put them out of business. It wasn’t until the French and coincidentally the American revolutions in the 18th century that European governments began supporting the people instead of exploiting them. They depended on us save them from two world wars.
Give Putin a deadline, quit by a certain date. That means all Russian troops and ordnance withdraw or the sanctions become permanent. The US should concur, we could live independent of Russia indefinitely. There would be small sacrifices.
GDP (gross domestic product) is the common measure of the economic power of a country, and the ability to support a war. Russia has a gross domestic product, GDP, of about $1.7 trillion, similar to Canada or South Korea. NATO countries have a combined GDP of well over $30 trillion, more than 15 times Russia’s. The EU which overlaps NATO has a GDP $15 trillion 10 times Russia’s. The G7 that overlaps both, $34 trillion. Putin is betting against the house three ways, and every gambler knows the house never loses. His hope seems to be, that he can destroy Ukraine before he bankrupts Russia. We hope Ukraine does not run out of patriots, because Ukraine is doing all the dying to defend modern free democracy
Many of the influential G20 nations could close their embassies and consulates in Russia and force the closure of all Russian delegations in their countries. Russian bureaucrats covet any foreign assignment where they can enjoy western life style.
NATO needs to make it clear, since even a small nuclear explosion spreads radiation world-wide; using any nuclear weapon will be construed as a radiological attack on many or all NATO members. Artillery battles change local climate. Team normal, NATO can limit a response to conventional weapons and still have the ability to attack and destroy many Russian assets, such as, all Russian naval, vessels, facilities, or shipyards. Dozens of Pearl Harbors, on his watch. NATO warships in the Black Sea would send a message, Turkey could reestablish itself as a world power. NATO has stand-off weapons that could destroy Russian weapons in Ukraine without boots on the ground. Ukraine could protest, pro forma. Please, wink, wink, stop shooting my neighbors tanks in my yard. By the way, we can manufacture most ammunition for many Soviet weapons. A Chinese trick was to make their artillery caliber just a shade bigger so that captured American ammo would fit their guns, but theirs would not fit ours. They needed captured ammo, we didn’t.
The brave people of Ukraine are making a tremendous sacrifice to save their country and incidentally our western civilization. We owe them for that and cannot afford to lose. A Putin victory will not only crush Ukraine, but encourage other international bullies to think they can get away with raping their neighboring countries. If Ukraine loses, we lose democracy, justice and our climate. Everything.
Ken Obenski is a forensic engineer, now safety and freedom advocate in South Kona. He writes a biweekly column for West Hawaii Today. Send feedback to obenskik@gmail.com